Es mostren els missatges amb l'etiqueta de comentaris Obama. Mostrar tots els missatges
Es mostren els missatges amb l'etiqueta de comentaris Obama. Mostrar tots els missatges

dilluns, 8 novembre de 2010

Tea Party

Avui tenim una nova aportació externa al bloc provinent de Washington DC. 



I have long maintained that the United States --a non-parliamentary unitary executive system-- is not really a two-party system.  The Democratic and Republican parties can be seen, for our purposes, as the equivalent of multi-party parliamentary coalitions.
The left-leaning party (the Democratic party) is made up of everyone from self-described socialists to so-called "Blue Dog Democracts; on the other hand, the right-leaning smaller government party (the Republicans) consists of a broad spectrum that runs the gamut from near Anarchists to so-called Northeastern Republicans, the latest in a long tradition of not very conservative but still barely electable in the liberal Northeast politicians.
This quick summary is useful because many elections seem mainly to be about politicans fighting for the great mass of undecided centrist independents, in other words, pulling undecided moderate voters into their coalition.  This election, in sharp contrast, showed almost every politician trying desperately to appeal to the Tea Party, a movement that is strongly allied with the right.  The handful of candidates who eschwed or ran against tea party themes lost (i.e. Russ Feingold), had very tight races (i.e., Harry Reid), or didn't really care because they were in safe districts (i.e., Barney Frank).
The question that is floating out there but is not getting nearly the attention that I think it deserves is: Just how right wing is the tea party?  This right-leaning poster sees it as common sense but there is no question that its small-government and anti-spending bent flies in the face of liberal and Democratic party orthodoxy...but, it obviously resonated with voters this year.  There are also questions about its staying power and its ability to resist being co-opted when they actually hold power.
Stay tuned.  Exciting as this was, the real test of the tea party is two years away.  Expect a Democratic primary challenger to President Obama and numerous outstanding candidates fighting for the right to challenge him under the banner of the Republican Party.

dimecres, 21 gener de 2009

Discurs d'Obama


La cerimònia d'ahir, televisiva al màxim, deixa un discurs que alguns esperaven que passés a la història. No era el moment segurament. Els nervis i, per què no dir-ho, guanyat el públic, millor deixar els discursos per espais menys protocolaris.

De tota manera, hi ha tres comentaris a fer:
* Una defensa afarrissada dels valors tradicionals, però a diferència del discurs republicà, reconeixent que s'han forjat fruït de la barreja i de reptes al llarg de la història.
* Plantejar contingut populista quant a l'anomenat "xoc de civilitzacions" però amb caràcter constructiu. La interpretació que en faig és que les reflexions a societats que no comparteixen els valors americans (clara referència a, per exemple, Iran) no s'han de confondre amb la idea de supremacia. S'allunya a Huntington clarament, el xoc de civilitzacions és evitable o com a mínim gestionable. Però és evitable perquè tant dolent és voler destruir el sistema de valors i costums americanes com voler-los imposar sota la premisa de la supremacia. Superar la por al desconegut, idea bàsica aqui.

* Un sistema d'aliances multilateral. En aquest punt es pot donar un interès joc de lideratges entre Sarkozy i Obama. Per cert, quin paper jugarà Gordon Brown en tot plegat? No es pot liderar Europa des d'un país no entusiasta amb la UE, sembla que apropar-se molt a Obama pot beneficiar el seu futur polític.

dimecres, 5 novembre de 2008

Chicago 2016


Chicago i Obama són un equip. De fet, tot i ser un lligam personal, la connexió entre la ciutat on el nou president s'ha fet gran i la seva empenta en el futur seria més que lògica. Aquesta ciutat vol ser olímpica. Estats Unitats no ha celebrat els jocs des d'Atlanta 96, uns jocs desastrosos, amb pèssima gestió i una ciutat sense personalitat. Chicago té una carta de presentació interessant: un llac impressionant, una ciutat gran i bones comunicacions amb tot el món... i Obama.
Chicago és a hores d'ara favorita per ser olímpica, Madrid potser haurà d'esperar, tot i que diuen les males llengües que hi ha un centenar de persones que estan desitjant que Madrid torni a quedar segona o tercera per fer durar la història fins el 2020 per allò de seguir "xupant del bote".

dimecres, 3 setembre de 2008

The republican Ticket- A view from Washington DC


Des d'avui tindrem un seguiment regular de les eleccions nordamericanes amb un corresponsal de luxe, un amic, nordamericà i resident a Washington DC. Crec que les seves aportacions poden ser molt interessants com a contrapunt a l'allau d'informació clarament pro Obama. L'autor prefereix signar simplement amb un pseudònim. Per qualsevol traducció no dubteu en posar-vos en contacte amb mí a andreuorte@gmail.com

My friend and former PhD classmate Andreu Orte recently asked me to offer a few thoughts on GOP vice president nominee Sarah Palin and the election in general.  I welcome the opportunity and look forward to your comments in English, Spanish, or Catalan.

For Republicans, John McCain is a source of deeply mixed feelings.  On the one hand, he is a true hero who endured and triumphed over unimaginable hardship during his years as a POW in Viet Nam and then stuck to deeply held principles during his years in the Senate.  On the other hand, he is prickly, arrogant, hot-tempered, and apparently determined to stick it to conservatives when it really counts.  Just one example is McCain's participation in the bi-partisan "Gang of 14" group that blocked some judicial nominations but allowed others to go through (in the US federal judges are nominated by the president but must be approved by the Senate; in the past 20-30 years the process has gotten very nasty with members of the Senate not even allowing votes on nominees with whom they disagree).  

To McCain it was bipartisan leadership but to conservatives it was a ideological concession of the worst possible kind and confirmed their deepest skepticism about McCain's not sharing their values.    With this in mind, it is understandable that many conservatives (and Republicans, for that matter) were utterly unexcited about McCain's presidency.  When Barack Obama chose "Slow Joe" Biden as his running mate and the smart money was on Mitt Romney as McCain's running mate it looked like a relatively boring run to the finish with most folks figuring Obama would pull it out.

Then came Sarah Palin.  It was a choice that was so bold it is impossible to predict how it will play out between now and election day and it has already shown the true colors of left-leaning major media players.

Here are some thoughts:

- For Americans living in any state that isn't Alaska, Alaska is frontier country.  There simply isn't any comparable in Spain (it is as exotic as the Canarias but the islands do not have the rugged reputation).  Frontier country implies a kind of self-reliance, physical toughness, and exoticness that go far beyond anything in "The Lower 48."  The combination of Sarah Palin's "sexy librarian" good looks and Alaska qualifications (she eats mooseburgers, for heaven's sake!) is fascinating and deeply appealing.

- Despite the media's heavy emphasis on her being a small-town mayor, Palin is now (and has been for nearly two years) the governor of Alaska.  This is major, meaningful executive experience that surpasses anything that either Obama or Biden brings to the table.  Her life experience (five kids, one getting ready to go to Iraq and one new-born with Down's syndrome; her husband is a snowmobiler, union member, and blue collar worker; she worked her way up from city council member to governor; she has taken on corruption and won time and again) is also fare more interesting and representative than the resentful entitled whining of Michelle Obama.

- The mainstream media's piling on to the story of Bristol Palin (the hard-left New York Times had THREE front-page articles on it) is among the most despicable cases of journalistic malpractice that I can remember.  Their inability to get the facts straight on the vetting process and other elements of her story is disgraceful.  Their prediction that the Evangelical Christian wing of the Republican party would condemn Bristol Palin was deeply wrongheaded and shows how little they understand the Evangelical community.

- The response from the Republican base has been extraordinary.  Massively energized by the boldness and chutzpah of the choice and thrilled by the pluck, smarts, and values of the nominee, conservative blogs (National Review, Hugh Hewitt, etc.) reporting a firestorm of new and passionate support for the McCain ticket.  Money is flowing in, too, as previously uninterested voters express their excitement with their wallets.

- This nomination is a game-changer that introduces huge risks and huge opportunities for the Dems.  Obama's risk is that he becomes the elitist who promises change but hasn't really done anything (one columnist joked that, "of course Obama is excited about the future: that's where all of his accomplishments are) compared with Palin.  Palin has done change and her vigor and blue collar background viciously undercut his rhetoric and ability to stand apart from a grey and boring field of three boring white guys (which would have happened had McCain chosen Romney).  Biden's opportunity is to be a voice of guiding experience that contrasts with what he could position as Palin's shallow exuberance; the risk is that he will come across as pedantic (which he is) and condescending, especially in the VP debate.

- Finally, Palin is, in many ways, the classic "Reagan Democrat" --union family, blue collar, from a "flyover" part of the country.  She could split the Democratic party coalition (taking blue collar and union workers with her) and that may explain the nastiness of the left's response.  (There are two main parties in the United States, for various reasons.  Consequently, whereas parties usually form governing coalitions in Spain and many other parliamentary systems the two U.S. parties are de facto coalitions.  The component parts of the coalitions can and do leave a party to join the other --particularly during presidential elections-- and some coalitions don't support either party at all.  This means that major party candidates have the challenge of appealing to as broad a section of the electorate as possible --not an easy task!!).

There is much to be written and the trajectory or her and McCain's candidacy will, in large measure, be set by her speech tonight and the media's response to it.

Check back soon for more!

-Paxton


divendres, 6 juny de 2008

Obama i el comportament polític

Ja és oficial, el senador Obama serà el candidat demòcrata. Els defensors de la causa, que són molts, poden sortir entusiasmats preparant les màquines per novembre. Les comparacions amb McCain donen clarament un guanyador en termes d'imatge i regeneració democràtica, però això no ho és tot.

El principal error d'opinadors i mitjans europeus és valorar les probabilitats de victòria en termes de "proximitat" de valors/ ideològia. Sense dubte, les minories, les dones (especialment les més independents) i els més humils haurien d'anar a votar en massa per Obama.

I aquí ve el principal problema. Aquesta elecció, per molt que s'enfronti en termes de renovació de la política americana, no serà diferent. La participació serà baixa, no serveix l'excusa europea de "mobilitzar" el votant progressista.

Els americans es mouen per un instint diferent al nostre. Necessiten veure cares familiars (Reagan, Schwarzenegger). Obama és cara coneguda, igual que ho era Mrs.Clinton, però per molts nordamericans no és la cara familiar que molts voldrien com a veí o president de la seva associació de veïns. No anirien a les seves barbacoes i potser tampoc barrejarien els seus fills amb els seus. Per començar és més WASP del que aquí pintem. I curiosament sembla que aquest motiu és important entre la població hispana i la negra més desfavorida.
Missatge, missatge, missatge (Yes we can!, el canvi, la regeneració). Centrar-se en això seria una campanya maca interessant, il·lusionant. Sota el meu punt de vista aquesta tasca ja l'ha feta, ara li toca parlar d'allò del qual parla un veí qualsevol. Obama hauria de sovintejar el beisbol, la platja, fer un tour per l'Europa més guiri amb motxilla. Del contrari, McCain té punts guanyats... en una recent consulta molta gent reconeixia que el votarà perquè el veuen una persona més propera al que ells coneixen.

divendres, 18 gener de 2008

Contribution about Obama's image (English)


Contribució d'Alex Wilson, doctorand a l'European University Institute, Florència, a qui agraeixo el seu comentari i link, en el qual connecta la imatge que es té a Europa del candidat Obama amb una aparent mancança de discurs realista. Us prego que en cas de fer comentaris, els feu en anglès o castellà, idiomes que el company Wilson coneix.
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Below is the link to an interesting article about Barack Obama's much-discussed political style. The writer argues quite convincingly that Obama's rhetorical appeal is based on his ability to mimick the political discourse of black liberation theology preachers. Obama successfuly adapts this controversial discourse to reflect a moderate, pan-american, multi-cultural audience. The familiar features of both discourses are highlighted: The injustices of the Present, the glorious Future which depends on Belief alone. This is one of the more interesting and analytical articles about Obama on the European press, and encourages us all to re-consider our very normative ideas about what constitutes democratic 'populism'.

Link to full text: http://www.guardian.co.uk/saturday/story/0,,2235707,00.html